Do You Have Enough Equity To Refinance?

One of our clients recently expressed an interest in refinancing their home, given the incredibly low interest rates available today. Before they undertook such an ambitious effort, we thought it extremely important that they gave carful consideration to a more detailed view of current real estate conditions and became familiar with the projected real estate picture. To that end, we prepared a current market study of their home so they could compare it to the market study we had conducted just 60 days earlier.

We wanted to ensure for our clients, the information we offered would help them assess their next move and provided enough information to conclude that it was wise… or not… to invest additional capital into their home… given the current local and world economic climate.

Lori & I have been professional full time real estate practitioners well over two decades. We have been through four of these earth shattering real estate tsunamis but this is, by far, the worst one ever... even though we do see... light at the end of the tunnel, albeit a small dot at the moment.

In the market studies we prepared, we used properties that are as close to similar, to our client's home, as possible. We only used homes in their exact neighborhood and made all appropriate adjustments for differences between each of the 8 homes that have sold within the last 90 days.

We felt it was important that our clients stayed mindful that property values continue to plummet here in the valley. We explained to them that their home lost nearly $50,000 value in the last 60 days. [Side Bar - It is this REALTOR's opinion that until the flood of foreclosures comes to a halt and not until MI companies will once again underwrite conventional mortgages with less than 10% down, communities here in the valley will continue to experience depressed market values.]

The Market Study, also known as a CMA (Comparative Market Analysis), we conducted in of their home in October, found the value range to be between $190,000 and $275,000 which was consistent with the expected decline from when they first put their home on the market.

The market study we concluded most recently now placed the value range of their home between $132,000 and $213,000. You’ll see that the study was conducted in exactly the same search grid, their very neighborhood. These statistical models can be duplicated in nearly every neighborhood in the valley. The value disparities grow wider as the price point of homes increase.

Our clients had already been in touch with a lender, Morgan-Stanley-Chase. The maximum amount their lender would loan on their home was 80% of the appraised value and could be as low as only 75% of the appraised value. We suspect that the appraised figure could come in somewhere around $175,000. Our client owed about $175,000 on their home. If their lender agreed to an 80% LTV (Loan To Value) loan, that would mean that our client would have to supplement their re-fi with about $35,000 of their own money plus any additional closing costs. While their monthly mortgage payment would drop significantly, perhaps as low as $950.00 PITI, if they were successful in securing a loan at 5% interest. The challenge we saw for them was that the recovery time for such an investment could be very objectionable to them... and in fact it was.

The reality is that local real estate industry analysts project, in some communities of Maricopa county, property values could fall an additional 5% to 10% over the next 12 months. If industry analysts and pundants are even partially accurate about the future of the economy and if the downward landslide of property values finally comes to rest in mid to late 2010 and then flat-lines until the end of that year, that would mean that the upward march of property appreciation may not begin until the first ¼ of 2011.

A Few Numbers To Consider

Our clients purchased their home in August 2005 for about $265,000. They spent an additional $80,000 in upgrades, brining their total investment to $345,000.

Given our market studies, let’s assume today their home is valued, by an appraiser, at $175,000. If property values decline even... only... an additional 5% over the next 12 months, such depreciation would devalue their home an additional $8,700 down to $166,250. That puts their property value nearly $100,000 below their initial purchase price of $264,605 in August 2005. Now add in improvements and upgrades they expensed, and you see that the economic ground to make up will be considerable; nearly $180,000.

If we agree that property values will begin their upward appreciation value march by January 2011 and if we use a 20 year historic statistic, here in the valley, of 3.75% annual appreciation, that would translate into our client not recovering, simply the original value of $264,000, until about 2026. If they have hopes of recovering all of their investment, such an aspiration may not occur until 2037. The time could be a bit shorter given the reality that, statistically and traditionally, as real estate markets recover from each cycle of downward trending, the annual appreciation scale may grow by .5% to 1% per year. However… we would wager that it will be decades, if not longer, before the valley or the nation sees the kind of property value inclines that were experienced between 2004 and 2006.

We are hopeful that our clients will give very attentive consideration to investing any additional capital into, what is currently a depreciating asset.

Here’s a really head twister about the word “ASSET”. Dictionary.com defines the word "ASSET" as (a single item of ownership having exchange value). Hummmm… exchange value… hummm… if our clients will need to add an additional $30,000 to $35,000 of their own money… just to obtain refinancing loan approval… is their home truly an “ASSET” at this point in time?

The origin of the word “asset” comes from the French word “asez” – “enough”. Now... there's a real enlightening word, "enough". When is it time to simply call it a day and say... "enough is enough"? One could argue that in today's economy, real estate is hardly an "ASSET". Oh... don’t misunderstand… real estate values will incline and rise again, they always do. The question is, how long is a property owner willing to wait to reach the point of ROI (Return On Investment?)

If you have sufficient equity in your home, to refinance at the terrific fixed interest rates that are on the table today, DO IT NOW. If you wait to see... "...just how low rates will drop..." you might just miss out on a golden opportunity. Simply use good judgment when you select your lender. It is usually best to stay with the lender who currently holds your note. You can usually work out relatively favorable closing cost concessions. Oh yes... the term, "sufficient equity" should not be confused with having to add additional capital to your investment in order to complete the refinance. If you plan on remaining in your home for a length of time that would translate into a recapture of any additional cash investment within a fixed and acceptable period of time, then take the step and make the investment. However... if you're upside down to the magnitude of the example in this BLOG, you may want to rethink carefully if such an investment is a prudent place to warehouse your hard earned dollars.

For buyers, it couldn’t be a better time to invest in real estate, as long as they have the intention of remain in their new home for, at a minimum, of 3 to 5 years. Anything less could prove to be a challenge when it comes time to sell their home. Real estate will always remain the fulcrum that helps balance the economic scales of our economy. The recovery time may take just a bit longer this time, when compared to other cyclical downturns then upswings.

Lori & G-II are licensed REALTORS® with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. They can be reached by cell phone at either 602.574.5674 for Lori or 602.796.5674 for G-II or via eMail at mailto:Lori.and.G-II@RealEstateInPhoenix.net.

If you would like to chat with us live, simply click the Google Talk Icon.

Lessons Forgotten are Lessons Learned

Sellers today have a particular challenging decision to make, "Do I sell or do I sit out the market and wait for a more opportune time?"

Today's Arizona Republic noted that property prices/values in the Valley have retreated from the gains realized during the boom days of 2003, 2004 and 2005 backward to a pre-boom era. Some Valley communities are seeing property values/prices retreat to those of 2002/2003. These sobering realities heap a very interesting set of scenarios on today's Sellers and Buyers.

As a Seller, consider the following:

The challenges Sellers face today is that most of the inventory Sellers compete against is foreclosed and/or Short Sale inventory, which in turn pulls the property values down in their neighborhood.

Being both a Buyer and Seller produces a double edge sword. On the one side, if a Seller is going to get in and stay in the game, the Seller will sell for far less than they had expected. The reality is... when the market finally corrects itself, property values will begin their slow and steady climb upward. But… keep this point in mind, once that upward swing begins… and it will begin… sometime in the future… perhaps as early as the second ¼ of 2010… if Maricopa County re-establishes her statistical bellweather appreciation curve of 3.5% to 4% per year, a property that would be valued at $265,000 in 2010 could be worth about $310,000 in 2015. The question that must be answered by today’s Seller is, “Am I willing to wait 5 to 7 years to capitalize on the equity I will build in my home over that period of time, or do I cut my losses… in my current home… today… and target a purchase for… perhaps less capital investment and then deal with the same upward appreciation curve described above?”

As a Buyer, consider the following:

On the other side of the sword blade, a Buyer or Seller (turned Buyer) can capitalize on the pain of the Seller they purchase from, ultimately making a purchase of their next home for much less than that Seller thought they would sell for and in all likelihood for a price that could never have been attained only a few years ago. Perhaps equally important is the very real probability that the home purchased today, may indeed, devalue a bit more before the market corrects itself. Some market analysts project that the real estate market will "over correct" to the bottom and beyond, before making a swing back upward. One thing is certain, no one knows where the bottom is!

Unfortunately, there is no clear cut answer to these and other questions. Each Buyer/Seller must weigh their own investment portfolio and then decide for themselves, which direction to go. "Do ya hold-em or do ya fold-em?"

Before I close I ran a few numbers through the G2-O'Meter and here's what I pondered.

Mr. Buyer today wants to buy his first house. He has his eye on a charming little bungalow priced at today's market value of $150,000. Mr. Buyer earns $50,000 per year. He is unlike the majority of first time Buyers today and has saved $20,000.

He can secure a loan for 6.5% bringing his PI to $855.00. His TI will be $150 and his MI will be about $80 bringing his total PITIMI to $1,155.00. His DTI (Debt to Income) ratio is 28%, well within Fannie/Freddie/Sally/Ginny lending guidelines. Mr. Buyer has a modest car payment, one for each of his modest automobiles, only $300 per month for each auto. He has minimum credit card debt, only $200.00 per month. Therefore his total committed cash out each month is $1,955, not including his cost for fuel, food, insurance and disposable income. Therefore his total cost of living, month to month, including his new house payment will be right at $3,000.

Now... let's put Mr. Buyer in his new home. He has exhausted his savings account because he had to put a minimum of 10% down ($15,000) and he had to pay his own closing costs, about $5,000. Mr. Buyer has NO cash reserves any longer. His total monthly cash outlay is 73% of his monthly income. What if he gets sick? What if his wife gets sick? What if his children get sick? What if his health insurance deductable, if he has health insurance, is so great that his cash outlay exceeds his income? Can he continue to be the frugal saver he was before he purchased his home?

I postulated this scenario to demonstrate where our real estate market may be heading. Do you think that it could come to pass that our nation re-visits the philosophy of our grand parents, wherein major purchases were made, ONLY if you had the cash to make such a purchase? Do you think if our national mindset takes this road, that Buyer's of real estate, could put off their purchase until they have enough of a cash reserve to sustain an unexpected "perfect storm of life"?

I don't know the answer and I'm not sure anyone out there does, but what I am certain of is... we're in for a very different upcoming decade or two. A few decades of frugal living and thrift spending. Do you think the Real Estate Industry might see our ranks shrink as those agents who got in the business of late run for more stable income producing platforms? If we do see a shrinking of our REALTOR ranks, do you think there will be enough business out there to grow our business? To the last questions, I am convinced the answer is Absolutely YES!

For those of you reading this BLOG post, who are not real estate agents, lenders, appraisers or home inspectors, you may find some component of my post that will lend itself to your own profession.

I believe that the questions raised are good ones. I believe we must all take a good hard look at where we have come, what we are going through and then set our sights on how NEVER to have to endure this kind of damage again. The first time this happened, "The GREAT Depression" our country was still young. She had never seen an economic down turn like that. The shame of where we find ourselves, as a nation and as individuals... today... is that we lost sight of what our grandparents learned and what they taught our parents and what our parents tried to teach us. We must learn this lesson this time so that our children and our children’s children never have to walk in this pit of fire again!

Lori & G-II are licensed REALTORS® with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. They can be reached by cell phone at either 602.574.5674 for Lori or 602.796.5674 for G-II or via eMail at Lori.and.G-II@RealEstateInPhoenix.net.

Lessons Forgotten are Lessons Learned

Sellers today have a particular challenging decision to make, "Do I sell or do I sit out the market and wait for a more opportune time?"

Today's Arizona Republic noted that property prices/values in the Valley have retreated from the gains realized during the boom days of 2003, 2004 and 2005 backward to a pre-boom era. Some Valley communities are seeing property
values/prices retreat to those of 2002/2003. These sobering realities heap a very interesting set of scenarios on today's Sellers and Buyers.

As a Seller, consider the following:

The challenges Sellers face today is that most of the inventory Sellers compete against is foreclosed and/or Short Sale inventory, which in turn pulls the property values down in their neighborhood.

Being both a Buyer and Seller produces a double edge sword. On the one side, if a Seller is going to get in and stay in the game, the Seller will sell for far less than they had expected. The reality is... when the market finally corrects
itself, property values will begin their slow and steady climb upward. But… keep this point in mind, once that upward swing begins… and it will begin… sometime in the future… perhaps as early as the second ¼ of 2010… if Maricopa
County re-establishes her statistical bellweather appreciation curve of 3.5% to 4% per year, a property that would be valued at $265,000 in 2010 could be worth about $310,000 in 2015. The question that must be answered by today’s Seller is, “Am I willing to wait 5 to 7 years to capitalize on the equity I will build in my home over that period of time, or do I cut my losses… in my current home… today… and target a purchase for… perhaps less capital investment and then deal with the same upward appreciation curve described above?”

As a Buyer, consider the following:

On the other side of the sword blade, a Buyer or Seller (turned Buyer) can capitalize on the pain of the Seller they purchase from, ultimately making a purchase of their next home for much less than that Seller thought they would sell for and in all likelihood for a price that could never have been attained only a few years ago. Perhaps equally important is the very real probability that the home purchased today, may indeed, devalue a bit more before the market corrects
itself. Some market analysts project that the real estate market will "over correct" to the bottom and beyond, before making a swing back upward. One thing is certain, no one knows where the bottom is!

Unfortunately, there is no clear cut answer to these and other questions. Each Buyer/Seller must weigh their own investment portfolio and then decide for themselves, which direction to go. "Do ya hold-em or do ya fold-em?"

Before I close I ran a few numbers through the G2-O'Meter and here's what I pondered.

Mr. Buyer today wants to buy his first house. He has his eye on a charming little bungalow priced at today's market value of $150,000. Mr. Buyer earns $50,000 per year. He is unlike the majority of first time Buyers today and has saved $20,000.

He can secure a loan for 6.5% bringing his PI to $855.00. His TI will be $150 and his MI will be about $80 bringing his total PITIMI to $1,155.00. His DTI (Debt to Income) ratio is 28%, well within Fannie/Freddie/Sally/Ginny lending guidelines. Mr. Buyer has a modest car payment, one for each of his modest automobiles, only $300 per month for each auto. He has minimum credit card debt, only $200.00 per month. Therefore his total committed cash out each month is $1,955, not including his cost for fuel, food, insurance and disposable income. Therefore his total cost of living, month to month, including his new house payment will be right at $3,000.

Now... let's put Mr. Buyer in his new home. He has exhausted his savings account because he had to put a minimum of 10% down ($15,000) and he had to pay his own closing costs, about $5,000. Mr. Buyer has NO cash reserves any longer. His total monthly cash outlay is 73% of his monthly income. What if he gets sick? What if his wife gets sick? What if his children get sick? What if his health insurance deductable, if he has health insurance, is so great that his cash outlay exceeds his income? Can he continue to be the frugal saver he was before he purchased his home?

I postulated this scenario to demonstrate where our real estate market may be heading. Do you think that it could come to pass that our nation re-visits the philosophy of our grand parents, wherein major purchases were made, ONLY if you had the cash to make such a purchase? Do you think if our national mindset takes this road, that Buyer's of real estate, could put off their purchase until they have enough of a cash reserve to sustain an unexpected "perfect storm of life"?

I don't know the answer and I'm not sure anyone out there does, but what I am certain of is... we're in for a very different upcoming decade or two. A few decades of frugal living and thrift spending. Do you think the Real Estate
Industry might see our ranks shrink as those agents who got in the business of late run for more stable income producing platforms? If we do see a shrinking of our REALTOR ranks, do you think there will be enough business out there to grow our business? To the last questions, I am convinced the answer is Absolutely YES!

For those of you reading this BLOG post, who are not real estate agents, lenders, appraisers or home inspectors, you may find some component of my post that will lend itself to your own profession.

I believe that the questions raised are good ones. I believe we must all take a good hard look at where we have come, what we are going through and then set our sights on how NEVER to have to endure this kind of damage again. The first time this happened, "The GREAT Depression" our country was still young. She had never seen an economic down turn like that. The shame of where we find ourselves, as a nation and as individuals... today... is that we lost sight of what our grandparents learned and what they taught our parents and what our parents tried to teach us. We must learn this lesson this time so that our children and our children’s children never have to walk in this pit of fire again!

Lori & G-II are licensed REALTORS® with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. They can be reached by cell phone at either 602.574.5674 for Lori or 602.796.5674 for G-II or via eMail at Lori.and.G-II@RealEstateInPhoenix.net.

REOs vs. The Short Sale... Sale Prices

Well... another bumpy ride on Wall Street last week... but then again... that's not news to anyone. Here's what you may not know though, the Real Estate Market may be in the beginning stages of stabilizing.

The Arizona Multiple Listing Service reports that there are over 6,200 residential properties currently in the Sale Pending category. This is about the same number of homes that were in the SOLD category in 2001, 2002 and 2006. Of the 6,200 homes in the Sale Pending category, a little over 2,000 were placed in the Sale Pending category between October 1st and 12th. Of that number over half are distressed property sales and of that number, over 80% are REO sales.

In the $125,000 to $175,000 price range REOs were reduced, from list price to sale price by as much as 24%. The difference between list and sale price for Short Sale transactions is only about 20% (*source ARMLS 10/2008). These statistics encompass all of ARMLS, an area spanning over 200,000 square miles. Nevertheless, the statistics demonstrate two important facts for real estate agents, sellers and buyer. First for the buyer; if the buyer is looking to purchase a Short Sale property, the buyer should be aware that lenders who negotiate Short Sale's for sellers are more inclined to hold out for sales closer to the actual value of the property. Second, these statistics also demonstrate the probable naïveté of the REO asset manager. ARMLS statistics show a growing trend for REO asset managers to accept offers that are far below the list price and even substantially below market value.

Buyers should understand that if he or she makes a purchase of an REO that is below probable market value, their purchase price helps set the value of the neighborhood. Therefore, making such a purchase could be considered a double edged sword; a great buy in terms of cash outlay but perhaps a detriment in terms of perceived value for future buyers of product in that community.

Why is this important? Because it is important for the buyer to know and understand market trends and to nderstand that these swings between list price and actual sale price can vary widely from community to community, city to city and state to state.

Here's an example. In the first 12 days of October 2008, in Surprise or El Mirage Arizona, the difference between list price and sale price for REOs was about 16%. Oddly enough, that was about the same statistic for sales of Short Sale transactions in the same cities. However, in Goodyear, REOs sold for about 13.50% less than the list price while Short Sale transactions closed only 9% less than list price.

It's important for sellers and buyers to seek out licensed REALTORS® who are well schooled in conducting these types of analyses. Making a real estate purchase in today's real estate market can be a huge win or a costly undertaking.

Lori & G-II are licensed REALTORS® with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. They can be reached by cell phone at either 602.574.5674 for Lori or 602.796.5674 for G-II or via eMail at Lori.and.G-II@RealEstateInPhoenix.net.

Do You Have To Seller Your House?

Hello, Folks!

If you are ready for MAXIMUM EXPOSURE on FOX 10, CLICK HERE to listen to Lori explain the mission.

Please excuse the informal greeting, but obviously, you have not provided your name yet... ;-)

If You want to sell your home... first... ask yourself these very important questions.

1. Do you NEED to sell your home?
2. Or... do you WANT to sell your home?
3. Do you think there is a difference between the two selling postures?
4. Do you want the REALTOR® you hire to put your interests and the wellbeing of your family above all else, including himself or herself?
5. Do you want to sell your home for the most money you can capture in today's real estate market?

If you want to explore the answers to any of these questions, call Lori at (602) 574-5674 or drop Lori and eMail at Lori.and.G-II@RealEstateInPhoenix.net or Lori.and.G-II@GoAirForceHomes.info.

Bye for now. We would like to be part of your solution.

For more market statistics and graphs CLICK HERE and HERE and HERE.

Lori holds the prestigious (CNE) Certified Negotiation Expert certification. CLICK HERE to read more about Lori.